🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Holstein Kiel defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Holstein Kiel beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.44 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.43 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Holstein Kiel beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 0.84 / defence 1.42 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.18 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 21% | Draw 20% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 59%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Holstein Kiel win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 64%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Holstein Kiel's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.36 PPG, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights