Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hamburger SV at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Volksparkstadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07 away from home this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
SC Paderborn 07 hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 5 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2026, ended 0–1 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. SC Paderborn 07 have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hamburger SV 60% versus SC Paderborn 07 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 58% | SC Paderborn 07 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.54 xG and SC Paderborn 07 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.891 / defence 1.016 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.633 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.916 / away 1.367. Data: 43 Hamburger SV games / 9 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 21%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | SC Paderborn 07 4.76. Hamburger SV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hamburger SV as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hamburger SV if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hamburger SV 70% | SC Paderborn 07 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 53% | Draw 26% | SC Paderborn 07 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Hamburger SV 1.54 / SC Paderborn 07 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.891 / def 1.016 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.633 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.916 / away 1.367 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is scheduled to kick off at 19:30 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Volksparkstadion.
Where is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 53% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (9 meetings): Hamburger SV 2W | Draws 2 | SC Paderborn 07 5W.
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (0.89) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (0.63x) against Hamburger SV's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 43/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.90
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.42
0.88
SC Paderborn 07 xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
21.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.88 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 13W 11D 19L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 11L across 43 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hamburger SV heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 9W 6D 6L from 21 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 8W 8D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.53 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 13W 11D 19L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.57 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 24 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Hamburger SV
2
Draws
5
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
From 9 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 2, SC Paderborn 07 have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 67%, SC Paderborn 07 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Hamburger SV) and 48% (SC Paderborn 07).
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 48%; SC Paderborn 07 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play SC Paderborn 07?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 43% of SC Paderborn 07's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hamburger SV vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Hamburger SV's recent games and 48% of SC Paderborn 07's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hamburger SV and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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