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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Hamburger SV run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV beat FSV Mainz 05 4-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.15 xG and FSV Mainz 05 2.17 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Hamburger SV beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FSV Mainz 05 landed 2.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.82 / defence 1.19 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 1.16 / defence 0.89, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 19% | Draw 20% | FSV Mainz 05 61%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Hamburger SV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 72%, FSV Mainz 05 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.64 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hamburger SV win broke the near-deadlock. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.42 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights