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FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hamburger SV.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat Hamburger SV 0-2 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.25 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.65 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hamburger SV fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 28% | Draw 26% | FC St. Pauli 46%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 74%, FC St. Pauli 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with FC St. Pauli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights