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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 28, as Hamburger SV and FC Augsburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.43 xG and FC Augsburg 1.15 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.05, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 43% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 30%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 66%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.46 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights