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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.09 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.54 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.04 / defence 0.80, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 27% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 48%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 72%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hamburger SV's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.56 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights