Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 8 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Hamburger SV's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Volksparkstadion, Hamburger SV have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at Volksparkstadion than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Borussia Dortmund arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Hamburger SV half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 60% and Borussia Dortmund 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hamburger SV 72% | Borussia Dortmund 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 1.09 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 0.885 / defence 0.986 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.045 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.497. Borussia Dortmund's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 9 Hamburger SV games / 43 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 27% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 48%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Borussia Dortmund 2.08. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Dortmund at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Hamburger SV 50% | Borussia Dortmund 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 27% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Hamburger SV 1.09 / Borussia Dortmund 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 0.885 / def 0.986 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.045 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.497 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Borussia Dortmund xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
Hamburger SV 1 - 1 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 27% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund in?
Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hamburger SV's attack at 0.89x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.04x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 9/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
27%
3.75
26%
3.88
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
2.63
1.54
Borussia Dortmund xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
16%
6.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.54 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 43 outings, Hamburger SV have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 18W 13D 12L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 23W 8D 12L from 43 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Hamburger SV against 1.79 for Borussia Dortmund. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hamburger SV have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (10W 7D 4L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 9W 3D 9L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.00 scored and 1.33 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 8D 12L in their last 43 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Hamburger SV's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 1.76 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or Borussia Dortmund been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Borussia Dortmund in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund?
From 3 meetings on record, Hamburger SV have won 0, Borussia Dortmund have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 62%, Borussia Dortmund 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Hamburger SV and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hamburger SV play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Hamburger SV's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hamburger SV vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hamburger SV's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Hamburger SV have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund finished level at 1-1 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 1.09 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.54 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.04 / defence 0.80, drawn from 9/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 27% | Draw 26% | Borussia Dortmund 48%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 72%, Borussia Dortmund 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hamburger SV 1.56 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.