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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 9, as FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.53 xG and Werder Bremen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Werder Bremen landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Werder Bremen attack 1.08 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 33% | Draw 23% | Werder Bremen 45%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, Werder Bremen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Werder Bremen's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.33 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights