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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over VfL Wolfsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat VfL Wolfsburg 3-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.54 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.72 / defence 0.95 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 40% | Draw 29% | VfL Wolfsburg 31%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, VfL Wolfsburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.23 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights