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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg finished level at 2-2 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.68 xG and SC Freiburg 0.63 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 0.63 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.99 / defence 0.65 against SC Freiburg attack 0.69 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 62% | Draw 25% | SC Freiburg 13%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 46%, SC Freiburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.34 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights