Sign in Register
🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 26

Kick-off

Sat 15 Mar 2025

14:30

Venue

MEWA ARENA

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

62%

FSV Mainz 05

1.61

25%

Draw

3.93

13%

SC Freiburg

7.94

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

16.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

14.0%

Home win

1 – 1

10.5%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.68

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.31

0.63

SC Freiburg xG

62%
25%
13%
FSV Mainz 05DrawSC Freiburg

1.61

62%

Home win

3.93

25%

Draw

7.94

13%

Away win

Goals Markets

67%

Over 1.5

1.49

33%

Under 1.5

3.03

41%

Over 2.5

2.44

59%

Under 2.5

1.69

20%

Over 3.5

5.00

80%

Under 3.5

1.25

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

39%

BTTS Yes

2.57

61%

BTTS No

1.64

Clean Sheet

53%

FSV Mainz 05

1.87

19%

SC Freiburg

5.37

Win to Nil

33%

FSV Mainz 05

3.02

2%

SC Freiburg

42.63

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.9 6.2 2.0 0.4 0.1
1 16.7 10.5 3.3 0.7 0.1
2 14.0 8.8 2.8 0.6 0.1
3 7.9 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.1
4 3.3 2.1 0.7 0.1
5 1.1 0.7 0.2

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.681
λ Away (xG) 0.628
Total xG 2.309
League avg home goals 1.519
League avg away goals 1.388
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.992
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.654
SC Freiburg attack strength 0.692
SC Freiburg defence strength 1.116
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 59 / 59