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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 23

Kick-off

Fri 20 Feb 2026

19:30

Venue

Mewa Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

52%

FSV Mainz 05

1.91

29%

Draw

3.48

19%

Hamburger SV

5.25

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

14.6%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

2 – 0

11.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.52

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.34

0.83

Hamburger SV xG

52%
29%
19%
FSV Mainz 05DrawHamburger SV

1.91

52%

Home win

3.48

29%

Draw

5.25

19%

Away win

Goals Markets

68%

Over 1.5

1.47

32%

Under 1.5

3.12

42%

Over 2.5

2.38

58%

Under 2.5

1.72

21%

Over 3.5

4.76

79%

Under 3.5

1.27

9%

Over 4.5

11.11

91%

Under 4.5

1.10

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

45%

BTTS Yes

2.21

55%

BTTS No

1.83

Clean Sheet

44%

FSV Mainz 05

2.28

22%

Hamburger SV

4.56

Win to Nil

23%

FSV Mainz 05

4.37

4%

Hamburger SV

23.95

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.6 7.9 3.3 0.9 0.2
1 14.6 12.0 5.0 1.4 0.3
2 11.1 9.1 3.8 1.0 0.2
3 5.6 4.6 1.9 0.5 0.1
4 2.1 1.8 0.7 0.2
5 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.518
λ Away (xG) 0.826
Total xG 2.344
League avg home goals 1.702
League avg away goals 1.386
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.866
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.873
Hamburger SV attack strength 0.683
Hamburger SV defence strength 1.031
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 56 / 21