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Stalemate at FSV Mainz 05's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 and FC St. Pauli finished level at 0-0 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG and FC St. Pauli 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FC St. Pauli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.75 / defence 1.02 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.74 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 37% | Draw 32% | FC St. Pauli 31%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, FC St. Pauli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.23 PPG, FC St. Pauli 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights