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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 15

Kick-off

Sun 21 Dec 2025

14:30

Venue

Mewa Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

37%

FSV Mainz 05

2.73

32%

Draw

3.12

31%

FC St. Pauli

3.19

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

12.3%

Home win

0 – 1

11.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.27

1.08

FC St. Pauli xG

37%
32%
31%
FSV Mainz 05DrawFC St. Pauli

2.73

37%

Home win

3.12

32%

Draw

3.19

31%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

48%

BTTS Yes

2.10

52%

BTTS No

1.91

Clean Sheet

34%

FSV Mainz 05

2.94

30%

FC St. Pauli

3.28

Win to Nil

12%

FSV Mainz 05

8.03

10%

FC St. Pauli

10.48

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.4 11.2 6.0 2.2 0.6 0.1
1 12.3 13.3 7.2 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 7.3 7.9 4.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 2.9 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.2
4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2
5 0.2 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.188
λ Away (xG) 1.080
Total xG 2.268
League avg home goals 1.636
League avg away goals 1.419
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.751
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 1.021
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.745
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.968
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 48 / 48