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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 2-0 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.26 xG and FC St. Pauli 0.68 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.87 / defence 0.69 against FC St. Pauli attack 0.72 / defence 0.87, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 49% | Draw 32% | FC St. Pauli 19%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 45%, FC St. Pauli 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.25 PPG, FC St. Pauli 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights