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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.42 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.08 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.68 / defence 0.93 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.79 / defence 1.22, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 43% | Draw 30% | 1. FC Heidenheim 27%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, 1. FC Heidenheim 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FSV Mainz 05 arrived the stronger side — 1.22 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights