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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Augsburg.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC Augsburg 2-0 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.51 xG and FC Augsburg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Augsburg landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.85 / defence 0.92 against FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 46% | Draw 29% | FC Augsburg 25%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 54%, FC Augsburg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.30 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FSV Mainz 05 win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights