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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 32, as FSV Mainz 05 and Eintracht Frankfurt drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.50 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.05 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.98 / defence 0.83 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 0.87 / defence 0.98, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 47% | Draw 28% | Eintracht Frankfurt 26%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 48%, Eintracht Frankfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.26 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights