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Borussia Dortmund cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FSV Mainz 05.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Borussia Dortmund beat FSV Mainz 05 0-2 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.11 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.67 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.67 / defence 0.87 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 25% | Draw 25% | Borussia Dortmund 50%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, Borussia Dortmund 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FSV Mainz 05 1.47 PPG, Borussia Dortmund 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Borussia Dortmund win broke the near-deadlock. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights