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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

14:30

Venue

Mewa Arena

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Borussia Dortmund Win

25%

FSV Mainz 05

3.95

25%

Draw

4.08

50%

Borussia Dortmund

1.99

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.5%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.3%

Away win

1 – 2

9.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.11

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.78

1.67

Borussia Dortmund xG

25%
25%
50%
FSV Mainz 05DrawBorussia Dortmund

3.95

25%

Home win

4.08

25%

Draw

1.99

50%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.83

45%

BTTS No

2.20

Clean Sheet

19%

FSV Mainz 05

5.30

33%

Borussia Dortmund

3.05

Win to Nil

5%

FSV Mainz 05

20.94

16%

Borussia Dortmund

6.08

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 10.3 8.6 4.8 2.0 0.7
1 6.9 11.5 9.6 5.3 2.2 0.7
2 3.8 6.4 5.3 3.0 1.2 0.4
3 1.4 2.4 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2
4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.115
λ Away (xG) 1.668
Total xG 2.783
League avg home goals 1.701
League avg away goals 1.635
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.667
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.873
Borussia Dortmund attack strength 1.168
Borussia Dortmund defence strength 0.983
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38