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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out FSV Mainz 05 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayern München beat FSV Mainz 05 3-4 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 0.99 xG and Bayern München 2.22 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayern München outscored their 2.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.80 / defence 0.86 against Bayern München attack 1.76 / defence 0.73, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 16% | Draw 19% | Bayern München 65%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 52%, Bayern München 86%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.52 PPG against 1.34. That form edge translated into the three points. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayern München (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights