FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat Bayern München 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat Bayern München 2-1 at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.19 xG and Bayern München 2.12 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayern München landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.89 / defence 0.92 against Bayern München attack 1.55 / defence 0.81, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 19% | Draw 25% | Bayern München 56%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 47%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bayern München's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights