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FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München – Predictions

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 14

Kick-off

Sat 14 Dec 2024

14:30

Venue

MEWA ARENA

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayern München Win

19%

FSV Mainz 05

5.33

25%

Draw

4.04

56%

Bayern München

1.77

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 2

9.8%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

9.2%

Draw

0 – 2

8.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.19

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

3.31

2.12

Bayern München xG

19%
25%
56%
FSV Mainz 05DrawBayern München

5.33

19%

Home win

4.04

25%

Draw

1.77

56%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

63%

BTTS Yes

1.58

37%

BTTS No

2.73

Clean Sheet

12%

FSV Mainz 05

8.29

30%

Bayern München

3.29

Win to Nil

2%

FSV Mainz 05

44.16

17%

Bayern München

5.83

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.7 7.7 8.2 5.8 3.1 1.3
1 4.4 9.2 9.8 6.9 3.6 1.5
2 2.6 5.5 5.8 4.1 2.2 0.9
3 1.0 2.2 2.3 1.6 0.9 0.4
4 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.192
λ Away (xG) 2.115
Total xG 3.307
League avg home goals 1.658
League avg away goals 1.481
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.893
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.919
Bayern München attack strength 1.555
Bayern München defence strength 0.805
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 47 / 47