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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out FSV Mainz 05 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FSV Mainz 05 3-4 at Mewa Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.09 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.69 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FSV Mainz 05 beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.69 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.65 / defence 0.94 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.19 / defence 1.04, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 24% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 51%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights