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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at MEWA ARENA, Regular Season - 34, as FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 1.28 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.49 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.95 / defence 0.83 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.22 / defence 0.87, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 31% | Draw 28% | Bayer Leverkusen 41%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights