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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 34

Kick-off

Sat 17 May 2025

14:30

Venue

MEWA ARENA

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Bayer Leverkusen Win

31%

FSV Mainz 05

3.20

28%

Draw

3.63

41%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.43

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

9.4%

Away win

1 – 2

8.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.28

FSV Mainz 05 xG

Total xG

2.77

1.49

Bayer Leverkusen xG

31%
28%
41%
FSV Mainz 05DrawBayer Leverkusen

3.20

31%

Home win

3.63

28%

Draw

2.43

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.75

43%

BTTS No

2.33

Clean Sheet

22%

FSV Mainz 05

4.45

28%

Bayer Leverkusen

3.58

Win to Nil

7%

FSV Mainz 05

14.23

11%

Bayer Leverkusen

8.70

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3 9.4 7.0 3.5 1.3 0.4
1 8.0 11.9 8.9 4.4 1.7 0.5
2 5.1 7.6 5.7 2.8 1.1 0.3
3 2.2 3.2 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.276
λ Away (xG) 1.493
Total xG 2.769
League avg home goals 1.534
League avg away goals 1.481
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.954
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.829
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.216
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 0.872
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 67 / 67