FC St. Pauli 0-2 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Werder Bremen at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Millerntor-Stadion plays host to FC St. Pauli versus Werder Bremen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC St. Pauli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for FC St. Pauli, 1.40 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC St. Pauli, 0 for Werder Bremen and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 55% versus Werder Bremen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 53% | Werder Bremen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.98 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.605 / defence 0.856 | Werder Bremen attack 1.044 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.474. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.605 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 FC St. Pauli games / 47 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 34% | Werder Bremen 41%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 4.00 | Draw 2.94 | Werder Bremen 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Werder Bremen at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Werder Bremen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: FC St. Pauli 40% | Werder Bremen 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 34% | Werder Bremen 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.98 / Werder Bremen 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.605 / def 0.856 | Werder Bremen attack 1.044 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Werder Bremen (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
FC St. Pauli 0 - 2 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 25% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Werder Bremen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Record (2 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 2 | Werder Bremen 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC St. Pauli's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Werder Bremen's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (1.04x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 13/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Werder Bremen Win
25%
4.02
34%
2.94
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.30
1.32
Werder Bremen xG
4.02
25%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.32 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 23W 11D 13L from 47 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 18L across 47 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for FC St. Pauli against 1.30 for Werder Bremen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 12W 7D 4L from 23 games — 1.87 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 8W 6D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC St. Pauli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.45 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 23W 11D 13L in their last 47 games (1.70 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 16W 13D 18L in their last 47 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Werder Bremen away?
FC St. Pauli's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.87 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC St. Pauli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC St. Pauli
3
Draws
2
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 1, Werder Bremen have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when FC St. Pauli 2-1 Werder Bremen.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen?
Werder Bremen have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 48%, Werder Bremen 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (FC St. Pauli) and 56% (Werder Bremen).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Werder Bremen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 61% of Werder Bremen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 56% of Werder Bremen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Werder Bremen cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC St. Pauli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Werder Bremen beat FC St. Pauli 0-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.98 xG and Werder Bremen 1.32 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.60 / defence 0.86 against Werder Bremen attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 13/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 34% | Werder Bremen 41%, with Werder Bremen to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 53%, Werder Bremen 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.70 PPG, Werder Bremen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Werder Bremen win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.74 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.