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VfL Bochum cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Bochum beat FC St. Pauli 0-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG and VfL Bochum 0.86 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.58 / defence 0.81 against VfL Bochum attack 0.71 / defence 1.11, drawn from 33/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 36% | Draw 35% | VfL Bochum 29%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual VfL Bochum win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 43%, VfL Bochum 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfL Bochum's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with VfL Bochum winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.27 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights