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Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.98 xG and VfB Stuttgart 2.19 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.70 / defence 1.02 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.46 / defence 0.86, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 15% | Draw 22% | VfB Stuttgart 64%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a FC St. Pauli win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 39%, VfB Stuttgart 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with FC St. Pauli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights