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Prediction vindicated as VfB Stuttgart edge out FC St. Pauli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat FC St. Pauli 0-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.99 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.46 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.64 / defence 0.85 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.22 / defence 1.03, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 29% | VfB Stuttgart 47%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 43%, VfB Stuttgart 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.54 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfB Stuttgart win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights