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Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out FC St. Pauli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Union Berlin beat FC St. Pauli 0-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.37 xG and Union Berlin 1.65 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.77 / defence 1.25 against Union Berlin attack 0.88 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 32% | Draw 24% | Union Berlin 44%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 36%, Union Berlin 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Union Berlin's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.89 PPG, Union Berlin 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Union Berlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights