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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 11

Kick-off

Sun 23 Nov 2025

16:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Union Berlin Win

32%

FC St. Pauli

3.15

24%

Draw

4.16

44%

Union Berlin

2.26

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.0%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 2

9.1%

Away win

0 – 1

8.0%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.37

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

3.02

1.65

Union Berlin xG

32%
24%
44%
FC St. PauliDrawUnion Berlin

3.15

32%

Home win

4.16

24%

Draw

2.26

44%

Away win

Goals Markets

80%

Over 1.5

1.25

20%

Under 1.5

5.00

58%

Over 2.5

1.72

42%

Under 2.5

2.38

36%

Over 3.5

2.78

64%

Under 3.5

1.56

19%

Over 4.5

5.26

81%

Under 4.5

1.23

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.52

Clean Sheet

19%

FC St. Pauli

5.23

25%

Union Berlin

3.94

Win to Nil

6%

FC St. Pauli

16.44

11%

Union Berlin

8.92

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.9 8.0 6.6 3.7 1.5 0.5
1 6.7 11.0 9.1 5.0 2.1 0.7
2 4.6 7.5 6.2 3.4 1.4 0.5
3 2.1 3.4 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2
4 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.371
λ Away (xG) 1.654
Total xG 3.025
League avg home goals 1.679
League avg away goals 1.503
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.768
FC St. Pauli defence strength 1.246
Union Berlin attack strength 0.883
Union Berlin defence strength 1.063
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 44 / 44