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Dominant FC St. Pauli run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Union Berlin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat Union Berlin 3-0 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.95 xG and Union Berlin 0.88 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Union Berlin landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.51 / defence 0.92 against Union Berlin attack 0.67 / defence 1.04, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 36% | Draw 33% | Union Berlin 32%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 48%, Union Berlin 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Union Berlin's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, FC St. Pauli arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights