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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Freiburg outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.72 / defence 0.86 against SC Freiburg attack 0.77 / defence 1.14, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 49% | Draw 28% | SC Freiburg 24%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 40%, SC Freiburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights