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Shock result as SC Freiburg defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Freiburg beat FC St. Pauli 0-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.40 xG and SC Freiburg 0.87 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC St. Pauli fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.69 / defence 0.88 against SC Freiburg attack 0.72 / defence 1.21, drawn from 21/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 48% | Draw 30% | SC Freiburg 22%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a SC Freiburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 47%, SC Freiburg 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.64 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SC Freiburg win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights