FC St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein Kiel – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli host Holstein Kiel at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC St. Pauli — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for FC St. Pauli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC St. Pauli's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Millerntor-Stadion this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — FC St. Pauli are significantly better at Millerntor-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Holstein Kiel have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Holstein Kiel away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC St. Pauli at 0.80 PPG versus Holstein Kiel's 0.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
FC St. Pauli hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Holstein Kiel, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 23 Feb 2024, ended 4–3 with FC St. Pauli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both FC St. Pauli and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
FC St. Pauli trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Holstein Kiel trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 53% versus Holstein Kiel 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 51% | Holstein Kiel 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 0.86 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.443 / defence 0.869 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.892 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.402. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.443 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 11 FC St. Pauli games / 11 Holstein Kiel games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 37% | Holstein Kiel 37%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Holstein Kiel 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.95 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 30% | Holstein Kiel 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 37% | Holstein Kiel 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG FC St. Pauli 0.86 / Holstein Kiel 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.443 / def 0.869 | Holstein Kiel attack 0.892 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Holstein Kiel xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 29 November 2024 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
FC St. Pauli 3 - 1 Holstein Kiel.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel part of?
FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 26% chance of winning, Holstein Kiel a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
Record (6 meetings): FC St. Pauli 4W | Draws 1 | Holstein Kiel 1W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Holstein Kiel (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC St. Pauli's attack at 0.44x the league average against Holstein Kiel's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Holstein Kiel's attack versus FC St. Pauli's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
26%
3.92
37%
2.70
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
1.95
1.09
Holstein Kiel xG
3.92
26%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
42%
2.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 15.5 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.09 for Holstein Kiel, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC St. Pauli's recent record stands at 22W 11D 12L from 45 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for FC St. Pauli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Holstein Kiel, meanwhile, have gone 22W 7D 16L across 45 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Holstein Kiel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC St. Pauli on 1.71 PPG, Holstein Kiel on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC St. Pauli have managed 11W 7D 4L from 22 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Holstein Kiel's away record stands at 12W 5D 5L across 22 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
FC St. Pauli are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Holstein Kiel are on 1.71 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Holstein Kiel in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Blended
Holstein Kiel
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 22W 11D 12L in their last 45 games (1.71 PPG), while Holstein Kiel have gone 22W 7D 16L in their last 45 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or Holstein Kiel away?
Holstein Kiel's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 1.82 PPG; Holstein Kiel away: 1.86 PPG.
Have FC St. Pauli or Holstein Kiel been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC St. Pauli have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Holstein Kiel in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — 2. Bundesliga, Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Sep 2023, when FC St. Pauli won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC St. Pauli's record when hosting Holstein Kiel specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
6
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
1
Holstein Kiel
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
From 9 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 6, Holstein Kiel have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli.
Who has won more matches between FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel?
FC St. Pauli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 46%, Holstein Kiel 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC St. Pauli) and 59% (Holstein Kiel).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Holstein Kiel in 46%; FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / Holstein Kiel away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play Holstein Kiel?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 54% of Holstein Kiel's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 59% of Holstein Kiel's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Holstein Kiel in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Holstein Kiel.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli beat Holstein Kiel 3-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.86 xG and Holstein Kiel 1.09 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC St. Pauli beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.44 / defence 0.87 against Holstein Kiel attack 0.89 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 26% | Draw 37% | Holstein Kiel 37%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 51%, Holstein Kiel 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.71 PPG, Holstein Kiel 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm. Holstein Kiel (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.