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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 19

Kick-off

Fri 23 Jan 2026

19:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC St. Pauli Win

46%

FC St. Pauli

2.15

29%

Draw

3.49

25%

Hamburger SV

4.03

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.6%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.1%

Home win

2 – 1

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.63

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

2.78

1.15

Hamburger SV xG

46%
29%
25%
FC St. PauliDrawHamburger SV

2.15

46%

Home win

3.49

29%

Draw

4.03

25%

Away win

Goals Markets

76%

Over 1.5

1.32

24%

Under 1.5

4.17

52%

Over 2.5

1.92

48%

Under 2.5

2.08

30%

Over 3.5

3.33

70%

Under 3.5

1.43

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

32%

FC St. Pauli

3.15

20%

Hamburger SV

5.09

Win to Nil

15%

FC St. Pauli

6.78

5%

Hamburger SV

20.51

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.2 7.2 4.1 1.6 0.5 0.1
1 10.1 11.6 6.7 2.6 0.7 0.2
2 8.3 9.5 5.4 2.1 0.6 0.1
3 4.5 5.1 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
4 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1
5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.628
λ Away (xG) 1.148
Total xG 2.776
League avg home goals 1.753
League avg away goals 1.449
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.773
FC St. Pauli defence strength 1.217
Hamburger SV attack strength 0.651
Hamburger SV defence strength 1.202
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 51 / 17