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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FSV Mainz 05 edge out FC St. Pauli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FSV Mainz 05 beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.00 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.47 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.65 / defence 1.05 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.94 / defence 0.90, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 25% | Draw 27% | FSV Mainz 05 48%, with FSV Mainz 05 to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 40%, FSV Mainz 05 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, FSV Mainz 05 arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights