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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sun 3 May 2026

14:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FSV Mainz 05 Win

25%

FC St. Pauli

3.97

27%

Draw

3.66

48%

FSV Mainz 05

2.10

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 1

12.5%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.4%

Draw

0 – 2

9.2%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.00

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

2.47

1.47

FSV Mainz 05 xG

25%
27%
48%
FC St. PauliDrawFSV Mainz 05

3.97

25%

Home win

3.66

27%

Draw

2.10

48%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

45%

Over 2.5

2.22

55%

Under 2.5

1.82

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.04

51%

BTTS No

1.96

Clean Sheet

23%

FC St. Pauli

4.34

37%

FSV Mainz 05

2.71

Win to Nil

6%

FC St. Pauli

17.26

18%

FSV Mainz 05

5.71

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.5 12.5 9.2 4.5 1.6 0.5
1 8.5 12.4 9.1 4.5 1.6 0.5
2 4.2 6.2 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2
3 1.4 2.1 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1
4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.998
λ Away (xG) 1.469
Total xG 2.467
League avg home goals 1.721
League avg away goals 1.492
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.648
FC St. Pauli defence strength 1.051
FSV Mainz 05 attack strength 0.937
FSV Mainz 05 defence strength 0.895
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 65