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Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat 1. FC Heidenheim 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.39 xG and 1. FC Heidenheim 1.47 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.67 / defence 1.26 against 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 35% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Heidenheim 38%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 36%, 1. FC Heidenheim 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.85 PPG, 1. FC Heidenheim 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights