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Shock result as FC St. Pauli defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli beat FC Augsburg 2-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.52 xG and FC Augsburg 1.72 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.97 / defence 1.05 against FC Augsburg attack 1.06 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 34% | Draw 23% | FC Augsburg 43%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual FC St. Pauli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 31%, FC Augsburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.

FC Augsburg's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 1.00 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC St. Pauli win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights