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Shock result as Bayer Leverkusen defy the odds to beat FC St. Pauli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bayer Leverkusen beat FC St. Pauli 1-2 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.92 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.82 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 1.02 / defence 0.97 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 41% | Draw 22% | Bayer Leverkusen 37%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 32%, Bayer Leverkusen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights