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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Sat 27 Sep 2025

14:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC St. Pauli Win

41%

FC St. Pauli

2.43

22%

Draw

4.63

37%

Bayer Leverkusen

2.68

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

8.3%

Draw

Most likely

2 – 1

8.0%

Home win

1 – 2

7.6%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.92

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

3.74

1.82

Bayer Leverkusen xG

41%
22%
37%
FC St. PauliDrawBayer Leverkusen

2.43

41%

Home win

4.63

22%

Draw

2.68

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

89%

Over 1.5

1.12

11%

Under 1.5

9.09

72%

Over 2.5

1.39

28%

Under 2.5

3.57

51%

Over 3.5

1.96

49%

Under 3.5

2.04

32%

Over 4.5

3.12

68%

Under 4.5

1.47

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

72%

BTTS Yes

1.40

28%

BTTS No

3.52

Clean Sheet

16%

FC St. Pauli

6.18

15%

Bayer Leverkusen

6.80

Win to Nil

7%

FC St. Pauli

15.06

5%

Bayer Leverkusen

18.23

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.4 4.3 3.9 2.4 1.1 0.4
1 4.6 8.3 7.6 4.6 2.1 0.8
2 4.4 8.0 7.3 4.4 2.0 0.7
3 2.8 5.1 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.5
4 1.3 2.4 2.2 1.3 0.6 0.2
5 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.917
λ Away (xG) 1.822
Total xG 3.739
League avg home goals 1.701
League avg away goals 1.635
FC St. Pauli attack strength 1.019
FC St. Pauli defence strength 0.971
Bayer Leverkusen attack strength 1.148
Bayer Leverkusen defence strength 1.106
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 38 / 38