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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as FC St. Pauli and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 0.77 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.59 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.63 / defence 0.86 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.26 / defence 0.82, drawn from 29/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 17% | Draw 26% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 44%, Bayer Leverkusen 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights