🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant 1899 Hoffenheim run riot with a 0-3 hammering of FC St. Pauli.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1899 Hoffenheim beat FC St. Pauli 0-3 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.53 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.83 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. FC St. Pauli fell 1.5 short of their projected output. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 1.19 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 32% | Draw 24% | 1899 Hoffenheim 44%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 32%, 1899 Hoffenheim 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC St. Pauli 0.98 PPG, 1899 Hoffenheim 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1899 Hoffenheim win broke the near-deadlock. FC St. Pauli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights