🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.29 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 36%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 41%, 1. FC Köln 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC St. Pauli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

1. FC Köln's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights