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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 30

Kick-off

Fri 17 Apr 2026

19:30

Venue

Millerntor-Stadion

Competition

Bundesliga

Germany

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

FC St. Pauli Win

38%

FC St. Pauli

2.66

27%

Draw

3.74

36%

1. FC Köln

2.81

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

10.2%

Home win

0 – 1

9.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.29

FC St. Pauli xG

Total xG

2.54

1.25

1. FC Köln xG

38%
27%
36%
FC St. PauliDraw1. FC Köln

2.66

38%

Home win

3.74

27%

Draw

2.81

36%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

47%

Over 2.5

2.13

53%

Under 2.5

1.89

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.93

48%

BTTS No

2.07

Clean Sheet

29%

FC St. Pauli

3.49

27%

1. FC Köln

3.64

Win to Nil

11%

FC St. Pauli

9.28

10%

1. FC Köln

10.21

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 9.8 6.1 2.6 0.8 0.2
1 10.2 12.7 7.9 3.3 1.0 0.3
2 6.6 8.2 5.1 2.1 0.7 0.2
3 2.8 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.292
λ Away (xG) 1.250
Total xG 2.542
League avg home goals 1.699
League avg away goals 1.451
FC St. Pauli attack strength 0.667
FC St. Pauli defence strength 1.094
1. FC Köln attack strength 0.788
1. FC Köln defence strength 1.140
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 63 / 29