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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfL Wolfsburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfL Wolfsburg beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfL Wolfsburg outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.81 / defence 1.11 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.95 / defence 0.96, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 30% | Draw 27% | VfL Wolfsburg 43%, with VfL Wolfsburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfL Wolfsburg arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights