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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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VfB Stuttgart cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over 1. FC Heidenheim.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

VfB Stuttgart beat 1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.16 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.65 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.65 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.71 / defence 1.17 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 24% | Draw 30% | VfB Stuttgart 46%, with VfB Stuttgart to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 55%, VfB Stuttgart 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, VfB Stuttgart arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights