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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as 1. FC Heidenheim defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

1. FC Heidenheim beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and SC Freiburg 1.43 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.76 / defence 1.16 against SC Freiburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 34% | Draw 27% | SC Freiburg 39%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Heidenheim win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 61%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

SC Freiburg's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with 1. FC Heidenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights